This paper presents summary statistics of wastewater data and a Bayesian hierarchical log-linear regression model developed to predict weekly COVID-19 case rates (NHS Pillar 1 and 2) based on wastewater surveillance data. Outputs are analysed to investigate whether the AstraZeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in addition to preventing symptomatic disease. No significant deviation was observed between reported case rates and SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater. However, three confounding factors have been identified that limit the interpretation of this analysis: changes in NPI, the emergence of B.1.1.7, and a change in laboratory methodology. Therefore, the results presented in this paper cannot be considered evidence of COVID-19 vaccines preventing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. While the insight provided by wastewater in interrogating the impact of vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is limited, the Environmental Monitoring for Health protection programme has, and will continue to, provide surveillance and outbreak support in the COVID-19 response.

@techreport{
    Hoffmann2021,
    title = "Current Environmental Monitoring Cannot Constrain the Effect of Vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission",
    author = "Hoffmann, Till and McIntyre-Nolan, Shannon and Bunce, Joshua and Grimsley, Jasmine and Hart, Alwyn and Lo Jacomo, Anna and Morvan, Mario and Robins, Katie and Wade, Matthew and Watts, Glenn and Engeli, Andrew and Henderson, Gideon",
    journal = "",
    year = "2021",
}